Agriculture is among the worst affected industries by climate change with increasing temperatures, and extreme weather events happening with more frequency.
It is especially true for countries like Pakistan where nearly 70 percent of land is already either arid or semi-arid. Pakistan depends on agriculture for 37 percent of employment, 22 percent of the GDP, and 60 percent of its exports.
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Pakistan’s average temperature is predicted to rise by 2.6 to 4.8 degrees by the end of the century. The resulting impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy, in general, can be catastrophic.
Studies forecast that climate change will cause food insecurity for 9 billion people by 2050 with a 50 percent decline in wheat production in South Asia alone. For Pakistan, the World Bank predicts a nearly 20 percent decline in GDP by 2050 due to extreme climate-related events and environmental degradation.
Pakistan wheat production is projected to decrease by 6 percent with a 10-15 percent decline in the yield of basmati rice by 2050 due to water scarcity and rising temperatures. It is a ticking time bomb for the country where 37 percent of the population is already facing food insecurity.
Climate Change is impacting our living patterns with shorter winters, longer summer spells, and unpredictable weather events”, stated Aamer Hayat Bhandara, Progressive Farmer and Founder of the Agriculture Republic & Digital Dera for the support of farmers and rural development.
He pointed out the previous year whether pattern when Pakistan witnessed heatwaves, drought, floods, and frost in a single year, highlighting the increased variability in weather models.
For decades, agriculture is being hit with a double edge sword with droughts in April and floods in September. Our existing reservoirs are losing storage capacity and projects in construction are facing severe delays and cost overruns. Himalayan glaciers are diminishing, and precipitation patterns are changing, posing a terrible challenge for the already burdened and inefficient Indus River system.
Livestock, which accounts for nearly 60 percent of the agricultural GDP, will also face the impacts of rising temperatures. Heat stress and water scarcity increase the disease risk in animals, especially reducing the survival rates of high-valued imported breeds.
Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is a viral infection that affected 190,000 animals and claimed the lives of 7,500 during the past year. High temperature and water scarcity indirectly contributed to worsening the situation by compromising animal hygiene and the immune system, especially in South Punjab.
Climate change also contributes to increased inflation of essential commodities by reducing yields, destroying necessary infrastructure during extreme weather events, and ultimately exacerbating existing socioeconomic disparities.
Policy Recommendations:
Government institutions need to invest in developing climate-resilient cultivars, especially essential food grains like wheat and rice. Last year, wheat production was severely affected due to heat waves in March, but this year, farmers reaped a bumper crop due to surprisingly cooler March and April.
The Meteorological Department needs to work with the top technology universities to build sophisticated climate information and early warning systems. They also need to loop in and coordinate with the agriculture department to train farming communities to understand and adapt to climate-related risks.
“The responsibility to take necessary steps cannot be left to the government alone, but the private sector needs to contribute as well”, added Bhandara. He argued that the companies in textile and other export-oriented sectors need to invest their share in developing solutions and empowering farmers against climate change.
He also maintained that there is an immediate need to provide accurate weather advisories and technical assistance to small and media landholders, so they can make better decisions
The government’s data-gathering techniques and surveys especially regarding agriculture are highly inefficient and produce inaccurate results. Extension workers collect data on area and production on their phones while sitting in offices. The government needs to adopt modern GIS mapping for better gathering and informed decision-making.
Farmers need to be encouraged to adopt crop diversification so that the maximum threat to food security can be avoided in the event of unpredictable weather events. A multidisciplinary but highly-powered task force of experts is needed to keep these matters above partisan politics and ensure timely implementation.
Stakeholders must come together without any delay to build new reservoirs and reform the irrigation sector. Modern drip and sprinkler irrigation systems need to be encouraged by incentivizing not just the farmers to adopt but also the private sector that develops these technologies.
The government needs to develop extensive contingency plans to protect the lives and resources of endangered communities against extreme weather events. These plans need to be developed, conveyed, and implemented to the local governments for the effective execution of prevention and disaster relief measures.
Media organizations need to spend more time and coverage on informing the populace about the threats posed by climate change to their lives and coming generations. There is a need for programs that inform the public about necessary steps in a way that resonates with them, so they can take better decisions.
There is also a need of raising awareness about the benefits of agroforestry (planting trees and crops together).
Research needs to be done to identify the trees that can be easily planted without reducing crop yield due to shadow and resource consumption. It helps a lot in controlling soil erosion and conserving soil productivity in case of floods and storms.
Lastly, there is literally little to no collaboration between the different branches of the agriculture sector i.e. policymakers, universities, research institutions, extension departments, private companies, and farmer organizations.
This cannot be the case while betting against climate change, so the government needs to ensure this cooperation for better decision-making and implementation.
Source: Pro Pakistani